Intro

Raburn: 00:01 – 00:27

Hey, what’s up? It’s your multimedia editor, Travis Raburn. Imagine you’re in a group chat with 44 of your cousins who sometimes get along, but also sometimes have beef. That’s like being Europe. Now, add a distant cousin who lives an ocean away, with a big personality, big wallet and some big opinions. That’s us, the United States, and on this episode of Gator Talk, we’re sitting down with an expert on European-American family dynamics. 

00:27 – 00:40 

Got burning questions about your Euro trip this summer? I gotcha. Wondering when those tariffs are going to start hitting your wallet? We’ll talk about that too. Or maybe you’re just curious about what international students at SF State are going through these days? 

00:41 – 00:57 

Well, buckle up, because this guest, they’ve got the answers. So, let’s cross the pond into a deep conversation with associate professor of international relations and director of SF State’s European Studies minor, Dr. Scott Siegel.

00:57 – 1:14 

“Gator Talk” introduction plays. 

Interview

Siegel:  01:15 – 01:21

My name is Scott Siegel. I’m an associate professor, and I use the pronouns he, him, his.

Raburn: 01:21 – 01:35

Dr. Siegel has been teaching at SF State’s International Relations Department for nearly 11 years, and previously earned both his doctorate of philosophy and graduate degree from Cornell University, and did his undergrad in poli sci at the University of Chicago. 

01:35 – 01:44 

He’s also authored more than a few papers in top-tier international relations journals and attended conferences from around the globe. So, he’s the real deal. 

01:45 – 01:50 

You’re essentially the international relations department’s Europe guy. 

What kind of got you interested in Europe in the first place?

Siegel: 01:50 – 02:00

It starts at a personal level. My mother was from Germany, and I traveled to Germany all the time as a kid, at least half my family is still there. 

Raburn: 02:00 – 02:03

Nice. And is Germany your favorite place in Europe? 

Siegel: 02:03 – 02:13

No, no, my favorite place in Europe is Italy. I just love the nature, and the food, and the wine, and it’s just everything I love in life.

02:13 – 02:16 

Italian music plays.  

Raburn: 02:17 – 02:23

And so it seems like you’ve had this American experience and this European experience. How is life different in the U.S. versus in Europe?

Siegel: 02:23 – 02:41

A lot of things. I think Europe, as you know, the cliché goes, but it’s kind of true, is that it’s a little slower, life is slower. On the other hand, in Europe, rules and norms are a little bit more constricting than here in the United States. 

02:42 – 03:03 

People say that this has been my role in life, and this will always be my role in life, or this is how I behave given who I am and what family I came from, and this is what my future will be. Europeans are not brash. Europeans are not willing to test boundaries in a daily life, or as Americans do.

Raburn: 03:05 – 03:25

OK, so picture this life in – Europe slower, like actually savored. So people in Europe take their time, enjoy their espresso and don’t rush around like caffeinated squirrels, but they like to stick to their roles and don’t like to rock the boat as much, unlike many of us Americans. 

03:25 – 03:34

Which can kind of throw some Europeans off. Speaking of throwing Europeans off, how are Dr. Siegel’s students feeling under the Trump Administration? 

Siegel: 03:34 – 03:53

It’s hard for me to say, because I haven’t pulled them or asked them directly. I think that we have a lot of exchange students still this semester, because they came before and made arrangements before the recent Trump Administration began. I think it’s gonna massively decline this fall.

Raburn: 03:53 – 04:13

And yep, Dr. Siegel’s onto something. International student numbers at SF State have dropped 40% since 2014, and nationwide enrollments are expected to drop even more due to the Trump Administration’s recent actions against international student visas and detentions of foreign tourists. 

04:14 – 04:27

And it doesn’t just affect classrooms. It affects money, too. In 2023 alone, international students pumped $43.8 billion into the U.S. economy. That’s billion with a B.

Siegel: 04:27 – 04:32 

I just think that the administration is going to make it much, much harder to come.

Raburn: 04:32 – 04:43

Talking on this current administration, I feel like he’s launching a large barrage of attacks towards Europe in general. What do you think the reasoning behind that is? What purpose does that even serve?

Siegel: 04:43 – 05:04

He views Europe as an actor that is not pleasing him and is not fully doing what he wants, and only if they do what he wants, will he treat them differently. So just like at a personal level, he only rewards people that will be gracious to him and treat him like a superior. 

05:04 – 05:17

He sees everything based on a transaction that he will only have a relationship with you if he benefits from it in the short term, and he benefits more from it than you do. 

05:18 – 05:34

I think the only thing that’s consistent about him that you can make conclusions about is his psychosis, the way he views the world from a personal perspective. And that is that he only views other people as tools and things to be used.

Raburn: 05:35 – 05:47

So Trump’s foreign policy: think less “grand strategy” and more “Shark Tank: Global Edition.” In 2025, President Trump has adopted a transactional approach to international relations. 

05:48 – 06:06

For instance, he recently proposed a controversial deal with the Democratic Republic of the Congo, offering U.S. military support in exchange for critical minerals like cobalt. Critics argue this echoes colonial-era exploitation and raises concern about the DRC’s sovereignty and dependency. 

06:07 – 06:26

Additionally, Trump’s administration has scaled back the United States’ involvement in international organizations, withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization and reducing foreign aid through agencies like USAID. These actions reflect a continued focus on national sovereignty and a departure from traditional international engagements.

06:26 – 06:35 

I feel like his foreign policy in his first administration was maybe a little bit different. How was it different in this second administration compared to the first?

Siegel: 06:36 – 07:04

I think the first, most people would agree and most people observe, is that he had a lot more people who constrain his impulses, and a lot more people around him who advocated sort of a cautious realism or a cautious engagement with the world still that valued alliances, that still valued engagement with the world, that didn’t see the rest of the world necessarily antagonistically. And really just wanted to maintain the status quo. 

07:05 – 07:17 

All of those advisers are gone. All he has now are people who support his worldview and support any impulsive decision that he wants to make. That’s the biggest difference.

Raburn: 07:18 – 07:28

Trump’s first term had generals, advisers and seasoned diplomats. People who could pump the brakes. But this time, it’s different. The inner circle is tighter, more ideologically aligned. 

07:29 – 07:46

In Europe, a recent Pew survey found that trust in the U.S. among key European allies has dropped by over 20% since his return. Allies are asking if the America they once relied on is still showing up in the same way. So what does our international relations expert think will happen?

Siegel: 07:48 – 08:00

As far as Europe and America? I think, you know, I always hate making predictions, but you asked the question. We have to think of educated guesses about what’s going to happen, because we have to plan, and we have to think. 

08:01 – 08:26 

So I think we really are at a turning point, most experts would agree, of the European-American relationship, where the Europeans look at America and say, look, you’ve elected this person twice now, and that means that America is fundamentally on a different course than us. And the partnership, culture of partnership, is over.

Raburn: 08:27 – 08:46

Europe and America? Total geopolitical BFFs since World War II. Their relationship has been built on shared democratic values, economic interdependence and a mutual love of security alliances. Think NATO: born in 1949, basically a big promise that if one of them gets punched, the others will throw down too. 

08:47 – 08:59

That’s Article 5, baby. They team up on military strategy, intelligence sharing, global trade and stuff like climate policy. The EU and the U.S. are each other’s largest trade and investment partners.

Siegel:  09:01 – 09:21

But they will look at each other less as partners and maybe more as rivals. It will depend a lot on who the next president is, and the next president after him could be like a Joe Biden, who will once again have to rebuild those ties. 

09:21 – 09:43 

But even if you had a young, dynamic Democratic president or even Republican President committed to the transatlantic relationship, Europeans will still say there is something different about America now than there was during the Cold War and immediately after, that makes America not on the same page as us. 

09:43 – 09:47 

Cell phone dial tone plays and a woman’s voice says: “The number you have dialed… has been changed.”

Raburn: 09:47 – 10:02

And you know, I think a lot of students are going to be either studying abroad over the summer or the Euro summer trip. Do you think that Europeans not in government – just your regular, everyday person –- will they be treating Americans differently? Or they’ll see that we are not our government?

Siegel: 10:03 – 10:20

You know, you sort of — it all depends on the person, right? And the first rule of thumb is never to talk about politics on a first date, right? I mean, what is the three rules at the dinner table? Don’t talk about politics, religion or taxes or something like that. 

Raburn: 10:20 – 10:21

Duly noted. 

Siegel: 10:21 – 10:48

But inevitably, when you’re young and given what’s going on in the world, it’s going to go towards politics, right? And it depends on the person. I think that if you have a fan of Donald Trump going to Europe, they’re going to have problems. They’re, you know, you’ll find a few supporters of him in Europe, but in general, no, you’re going to have problems if you repeat some of the ideology.

Raburn: 10:48 – 10:57

Yeah, and I feel like a lot of my friends in Europe, they’re just texting me, “Oh my God. Are you okay? What the hell is happening in your country right now?” I don’t know. It really sets in stone —.

Siegel: 10:57 – 11:09

I think that’s good, because they care. I mean, to be honest, Travis, Americans, we have to ask ourselves, “Are we okay?” You know, we have to take care of each other too.

Raburn: 11:09 – 11:23

I mean, as students, it’s kind of, it’s very scary. I mean, the world has just been turned upside down on its head. I’m going to be graduating, entering a work force of potential recession. We can talk about that later. How are you feeling right now? You know what I mean?

Siegel: 11:23 – 11:33

Oh, overwhelmed. You know, really overwhelmed. I try to limit my digest of news every day.

Raburn: 11:33 – 11:44

News fatigue. Who else has it? I know I do. It’s that mental eye roll, the scroll past reflex, the “Ugh, not again.” When staying informed starts to feel like emotional quicksand.

Siegel: 11:45 – 12:04

You know, I turn off news notifications for sure. I don’t listen to NPR as much as I used to. I get more upset about the tone of the news. I just limit the amount of news that I listen to and limit who I hear the news from.

Raburn: 12:04 – 12:22

Speaking of news, something else that’s been making global headlines recently are tariffs. A tariff is basically a fancy word for a tax on stuff that crosses borders. When one country imports goods from another – like, say, cars, cheese or machine parts – it can slap a tariff on those goods to make them more expensive. 

12:23 – 12:36

But why? Sometimes it’s to protect local industries, and sometimes it’s to play hardball in trade negotiations. Kind of like saying, “Sure you can bring that in, but it’s gonna cost you.”

12:36 – 12:47 

And they’ve been everywhere since February. When Trump signed an executive order slapping them on Canada, Mexico and China, he basically triggered a full-on trade war. 

12:48 – 13:07

Oh, and U.S. stocks? They’ve tanked after his so-called “Liberation Day” on April 2, when even more countries got tariffed. But plot twist, a week later on April 9, he hit pause to give everyone a chance to negotiate. It’s been messy. But what does Dr. Siegel think?

Siegel: 13:08 – 13:23

Well, they’re horrible. I mean, they — things are changing day by day, but they’re really leading us into a world that we haven’t experienced, we have not experienced. They are propelling the United States into the world of the 1930’s. 

13:24 – 13:27 

Piano trill and man says, “Oh, no!” in an English accent. 

Siegel: 13:27 – 13:52

Trade wars lead to real wars, at least it did in the 1930s. I see it more like leading to poverty, especially for poor small countries, that all they can do is sell to us. A lot of these small countries, all they do is sell a few jeans to us or sell clothes to us like Cambodia and Laos, or even Vietnam and Lesotho. 

13:52 – 14:08

For some stupid reason and stupid formula, they get hit with 60% tariffs and 70% tariffs, and that’s because they’re very poor, so they don’t buy anything from us. They can’t afford to buy anything from us, but they can sell things to us because it’s really cheap.

Raburn: 14:07 – 14:33

Poorer countries often rely on exports — things like textiles, coffee, electronics — to bring money in, fuel jobs and grow their economies. Tariffs make their goods more expensive and less attractive to buyers. Which means fewer sales, less income and lost jobs. And it’s not just in the economics, it’s food on tables, kids in school, medicine in clinics. 

14:44 – 14:58

So what happens when these countries get hit with new tariffs? Trade slows, factories shut down, governments struggle to fund basic services, inequality grows. It’s kind of like trying to win a game where the rules keep changing and the refs work for the other team. And even with the tariff amounts reduced, it’s still sown the seeds of uncertainty in the countries that Trump has tariffed. 

Siegel: 14:59 – 15:00

You know, what do these people do? 

Raburn: 15:00 – 15:07

Yeah, so I guess, like, when can we expect all these ramifications to happen? Right now? Or will it take weeks, months? 

Siegel: 15:07 – 15:57

Well for the poor countries, very soon. For us, it depends on the sector and the industry. So the auto tariffs are still in place. The auto and auto parts tariffs are still in place. So some, some auto factories are, are laying off their workers and saying, “We don’t have the parts,” or “The parts are too expensive,” and prices for new cars are going to go through the roof. 

15:31 – 15:56

A lot of small businesses are already shutting down and saying, “I don’t have the stuff that I need from China. You know, I can’t sell. “Then there’s a retaliation too, that China has put tariffs on soy and corn from the United States, and that means farmers are going to be hit really hard very soon. So it depends on the industry and it depends on things. As far as American consumers, probably really hit in the summer and the fall.

Raburn: 15:57 – 16:22

Okay, pause. We get a whole care package of stuff from China. Think electronics, phones, laptops, parts for your smart fridge, also machinery, toys, clothes, furniture and a whole lot of new stuff that makes other stuff work. Tariffs on Chinese imports: that means higher prices for consumers and headaches for the many American businesses that rely on Chinese parts to build their own products. 

16:23 – 16:46

Now flip to Europe. What gets caught in the crossfire? If the U.S. hikes tariffs on European goods, we’re talking luxury cars — hey BMW — wine, cheese, aircraft parts, pharmaceuticals, even industrial equipment. In return, Europe might respond with tariffs on U.S. exports like tech products, agricultural goods and even American-made fashion. 

16:47 – 17:07

But the bottom line is that tariffs make things more expensive, slow down trade and can escalate into tit-for-tat economic slap fights that hit jobs and prices on both sides of the ocean. Do you think that we should be preparing for a major recession? Should we be saving or do you think it’s too early – yes, okay. 

Siegel: 17:06 – 17:25

Yeah, yeah, I think there’s nothing wrong with that. Unfortunately, if everyone does that, then we are entering a recession. Because if you’re preparing for a recession by saving your money out of fear that you’re losing your job, well, if everyone does that, that means no one’s spending their money, and that means that people will get laid off because no one is spending their money. 

Raburn: 17:25 – 17:27

Don’t take your stocks out, folks! 

Siegel: 17:27 – 17:34

Never take your stocks out. You know, my daughter’s college fund is going to be there for a long time.

Raburn: 17:35 – 17:46

Okay, enough doom scrolling through tariffs, let’s shift gears. We’ve been deep in the weeds of global trade. But what about Dr. Siegel’s summer? Any plans that don’t involve economic policy?

Siegel: 17:46 – 18:00

In summer, I actually hope to go to Taiwan to teach international political economy for three weeks. For all you listeners out there at SF State, we still have slots available. If you’re interested in it, just contact me.

Raburn: 18:00 – 18:07

I linked that in the transcription below. For people that are going to Europe this summer, what spots do not miss, you have to go see this?

Siegel: 18:08 – 18:25

You know, I had a chance to go to Scotland for the first time last summer. It was just wonderful to see beautiful countryside with hills and try to speak to people who supposedly spoke English, but really you couldn’t understand a word.

18:26 – 18:29

Scottish bagpipes play. 

Siegel: 18:29 – 18:45

And the culture of Scotland is very laid back. It is – everything is a little bit slower than England. And I don’t mean that in a negative way. I mean, they enjoy life a little bit more than I think you find in England, and that was really great. 

18:45 – 18:58

And if in Europe, you’re in the summer, well, don’t go to Southern Europe in July or August, because everyone else is there. And it’s super hot. I mean, it’s gotten — because of climate change, it’s gotten super, super hot.

Raburn: 18:58 – 19:19

We’re talking sidewalks that can fry an egg hot. In 2023, parts of Spain and Italy hit over 44 degrees centigrade. That’s 111 degrees Fahrenheit for those Americans listening. Climate scientists call it “Mediterranean amplification,” but I call it, “sweating through your linen shirt before lunch.” Ugh. 

Siegel: 19:19 – 19:30

So if you’re going to Europe in the summer, I really advise you to go to north, to go to Scandinavia. Because the weather will be better and there will be fewer tourists around. 

Raburn: 19:30 – 19:37

And what are some of the biggest mistakes people make whenever going abroad for the first time, just like either planning or just like, out and about?

Siegel: 19:37 – 19:51

Oh well, first, trying to do too much. Don’t get a Eurail pass and try to do 18 countries in 14 days, or something like that. Just don’t do it. Just realize you can always go back. You know, those countries will always be there. Don’t worry. 

Raburn: 19:51 – 19:53

Fingers crossed. 

Siegel: 19:53 – 20:21

No, no, they’ll always be there, so don’t worry. Just focus on maybe two countries or two places you’ve always wanted to be at and soak it all up. Just do one thing in one day, one museum in one day, and then sit in a cafe and chat. And especially summer in Northern Europe is fun because it’s daylight until very late. So you know, and it’s warm, or it’s warmer than San Francisco.

Raburn: 20:23 – 20:25

We’ve covered a lot, from global shakeups to an uncertain future, but in times like these, it’s also important to look forward. We’ve talked a lot of heavy stuff. Do you have any hope for the future right now? 

Siegel: 20:35 – 20:38

Oh of course, you’ve got to have hope. You’ve always got to have hope.  

20:39 – 21:02 

People are starting to organize and people are starting to protest. You know, young people, if you look at some of them, they’re really exercising leadership already. There are still those go-getters out there. There are still those people who are like, “this is what I want to do in my life, and this is — I will not let anything stop me.” They don’t have as much cynicism as my generation, or people my age do.

21:02 – 21:30 

So, yeah, I mean, you know, it’s, it’s not, it’s not like the stuff that’s happening is that permanent. It’s upsetting everything that is happening to this country, and there are lots of people that are suffering, and the weakest people in our country are the ones that are suffering the most. Immigrants, LGBTQ+ people especially trans people, academics because they’re not federal employees.

Raburn: 21:31 – 21:54

At the time of this recording, one current and four former SF State students have had their visas revoked by the Trump Administration. It’s heavy. In an email, SF State President Lynn Mahoney said that the university is doing what it can, working closely with current students to find a way to help them finish their degrees and offering support to all those who have been affected. 

21:55 – 22:00 

She ended the email by saying that many people are doing everything that they can to find a better path forward.

Siegel: 22:01 – 22:10

But, you know, this too shall pass. It’s just a matter of time but also organization and fighting.

Raburn: 22:10 – 22:12

It all gets better in time. It all gets better in time. 

Siegel: 22:12 – 22:18

But you gotta fight for it. 

Outro

Raburn: 22:18 – 22:26

So while the world may not be all sunshine or rainbows, there still is hope. As always, thanks for listening and leave a comment on where you think the world is heading. Peace out.

22:26 – 22:32

Outro music plays.